Today / Brazil - Serie C / Paysandu vs Guarani

Paysandu vs Guarani Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 14 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 19:00

Paysandu

PPG 1.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Guarani

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-18.0%0-26.8%0-33.8%0-4+2.3%1 1-06.5%1-110.9%1-29.2%1-35.2%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.4%2-17.4%2-26.2%2-33.5%2-4+2.2%3 3-02.0%3-13.4%3-22.8%3-31.6%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.5%4+-21.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.3% 44.4% 2.25 -22.8%

Draw 24.8% 30.8% 3.25 -11.6%

Away win 40.9% 34.7% 2.88 +17.8%

Over 2.5 54.8% 55.6% 1.80 -1.4%

Over 3.5 35.1% 33.3% 3.00 +5.3%

BTTS 55.6% 61.7% 1.62 -9.9%

Home O1.5 41.2% 47.6% 2.10 -13.5%

Away O1.5 50.2% 40.0% 2.50 +25.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -47.6%

Bet Hit 28%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob55.6%

A 41% / xG 1.4-1.7 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 2–1 7.4%

#4 0–2 6.8%

#5 0–0 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paysandu1.4

Guarani1.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.8% · O3.5 PROB 35.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PAYSANDU · PPG 1.57

GUARANI · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.57), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Paysandu (H) 34.3%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -22.8%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -11.6%

Guarani (A) 40.9%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +17.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Paysandu face Guarani in Brazil - Serie C on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paysandu a 34% chance, the draw 25% and Guarani 41%, so Guarani are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Paysandu and 1.7 for Guarani (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paysandu are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.50 for Guarani. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +36.8%.

Paysandu vs Guarani Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie C Predictions