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Ituano vs Ferroviaria Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 14 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 19:00

Ituano

PPG 2.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ferroviaria

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.0%0-110.9%0-23.3%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.0%1-112.1%1-23.7%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.1%2-16.7%2-22.0%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.1%3-12.5%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-10.9%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.1% 43.5% 2.30 +6.0%

Draw 31.1% 33.9% 2.95 -8.3%

Away win 22.8% 32.3% 3.10 -17.6%

Over 2.5 36.0% 40.8% 2.45 -11.8%

Over 3.5 17.6% 22.2% 4.50 -12.5%

BTTS 45.6% 51.3% 1.95 -11.1%

Home O1.5 35.9% 38.5% 2.60 -6.7%

Away O1.5 19.1% 30.8% 3.25 -22.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -47.6%

Bet Hit 28%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.6%

H 46% / xG 1.1-0.6 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.0%

#2 1–0 20.0%

#3 1–1 12.1%

#4 2–0 11.1%

#5 0–1 10.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ituano1.1

Ferroviaria0.6

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.0% · O3.5 PROB 17.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ITUANO · PPG 2.33

FERROVIARIA · PPG 1.00

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs P(Home)=46.1%

Win probability 1X2

Ituano (H) 46.1%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +6.0%

Draw 31.1%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -8.3%

Ferroviaria (A) 22.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -17.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ituano face Ferroviaria in Brazil - Serie C on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ituano a 46% chance, the draw 31% and Ferroviaria 23%, so Ituano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Ituano and 0.6 for Ferroviaria (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ituano are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Ferroviaria. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +6.0%.

Ituano vs Ferroviaria Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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