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Ceara vs Athletic Club Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 17 ·Monday, July 13, 2026, 23:30

Ceara

PPG 1.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Athletic Club

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.2%0-112.8%0-26.2%0-32.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.9%1-113.5%1-26.5%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.4%2-17.2%2-23.5%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.6%3-12.5%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.8% 52.6% 1.90 -24.4%

Draw 30.8% 30.8% 3.25 +0.1%

Away win 29.5% 23.3% 4.30 +16.1%

Over 2.5 44.0% 44.4% 2.25 -1.0%

Over 3.5 23.2% 23.8% 4.20 -1.5%

BTTS 48.4% 51.3% 1.95 -5.6%

Home O1.5 35.9% 46.5% 2.15 -22.8%

Away O1.5 30.9% 25.6% 3.90 +20.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 91 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 58.6%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.4%

H 40% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 13.2%

#3 1–0 13.9%

#4 0–1 12.8%

#5 2–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ceara1.1

Athletic Club1.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 23.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CEARA · PPG 1.38

ATHLETIC CLUB · PPG 1.29

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.38), Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Ceara (H) 39.8%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -24.4%

Draw 30.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +0.1%

Athletic Club (A) 29.5%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV +16.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ceara face Athletic Club in Brazil - Serie B on Monday, July 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ceara a 40% chance, the draw 31% and Athletic Club 30%, so Ceara are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Ceara and 1.0 for Athletic Club (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ceara are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.29 for Athletic Club. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +20.5%.

Ceara vs Athletic Club Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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