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Operario PR vs Novorizontino Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 14:00

Operario PR

PPG 1.88 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDD

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Novorizontino

PPG 1.63 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-112.5%0-28.0%0-33.4%0-4+1.5%1 1-010.1%1-113.1%1-28.4%1-33.6%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.3%2-16.8%2-24.4%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.9%3-12.4%3-21.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.0% 41.3% 2.42 -25.0%

Draw 26.8% 32.3% 3.10 -10.2%

Away win 42.2% 33.6% 2.98 +25.8%

Over 2.5 49.9% 45.5% 2.20 +9.8%

Over 3.5 29.2% 23.8% 4.20 +13.6%

BTTS 52.6% 54.6% 1.83 -3.7%

Home O1.5 35.9% 40.0% 2.50 -10.3%

Away O1.5 38.4% 34.5% 2.90 +11.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.6%

A 42% / xG 1.0-1.3 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.7%

#3 0–1 12.5%

#4 1–2 8.4%

#5 1–0 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Operario PR1.0

Novorizontino1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.2%

Form & verdict PPG

OPERARIO PR · PPG 1.88

NOVORIZONTINO · PPG 1.63

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.88), Away GOOD (1.63)

Win probability 1X2

Operario PR (H) 31.0%

ODDS 2.42 · IMPLIED 41.3% EV -25.0%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -10.2%

Novorizontino (A) 42.2%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV +25.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Operario PR face Novorizontino in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Operario PR a 31% chance, the draw 27% and Novorizontino 42%, so Novorizontino are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Operario PR and 1.3 for Novorizontino (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Operario PR are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.63 for Novorizontino. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +25.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Operario PR vs Novorizontino Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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