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Sao Bernardo vs Cuiaba Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 19:00

Sao Bernardo

PPG 1.13 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDDL

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Cuiaba

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWDW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-027.3%0-115.4%0-24.3%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.1%1-111.3%1-23.2%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-07.4%2-14.1%2-21.2%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-01.8%3-11.0%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.6% 42.4% 2.36 -13.6%

Draw 35.5% 34.2% 2.92 +3.7%

Away win 27.8% 30.3% 3.30 -5.0%

Over 2.5 32.6% 34.5% 2.90 -5.5%

Over 3.5 12.4% 16.7% 6.00 -15.4%

BTTS 45.6% 44.4% 2.25 +2.6%

Home O1.5 33.3% 33.9% 2.95 -1.8%

Away O1.5 19.1% 25.6% 3.90 -15.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.6%

D 36% / xG 0.7-0.6 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 27.3%

#2 1–0 20.1%

#3 0–1 15.4%

#4 1–1 11.3%

#5 2–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sao Bernardo0.7

Cuiaba0.6

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 32.6% · O3.5 PROB 12.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SAO BERNARDO · PPG 1.13

CUIABA · PPG 1.29

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.13), Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Sao Bernardo (H) 36.6%

ODDS 2.36 · IMPLIED 42.4% EV -13.6%

Draw 35.5%

ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV +3.7%

Cuiaba (A) 27.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -5.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sao Bernardo face Cuiaba in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sao Bernardo a 37% chance, the draw 36% and Cuiaba 28%, so Sao Bernardo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Sao Bernardo and 0.6 for Cuiaba (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sao Bernardo are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.29 for Cuiaba. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +3.7%. This match finished 2-2.

Sao Bernardo vs Cuiaba Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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