Today / Brazil - Serie B / America MG vs Londrina

America MG vs Londrina Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 17 ·Monday, July 13, 2026, 22:00

America MG

PPG 0.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Londrina

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 55.7% vs bookmaker-implied 25.3% — a clear edge.

+120.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-110.8%0-29.4%0-35.4%0-4+3.4%1 1-06.5%1-111.3%1-29.7%1-35.6%1-4+3.6%2 2-03.4%2-15.9%2-25.1%2-32.9%2-4+1.9%3 3-01.2%3-12.0%3-21.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 20.9% 51.8% 1.93 -35.8%

Draw 23.4% 29.9% 3.35 -13.0%

Away win 55.7% 25.3% 3.95 +120.0%

Over 2.5 54.0% 50.0% 2.00 +8.0%

Over 3.5 32.9% 28.6% 3.50 +15.2%

BTTS 55.6% 56.5% 1.77 -1.6%

Home O1.5 35.9% 50.0% 2.00 -28.2%

Away O1.5 50.2% 30.3% 3.30 +65.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 91 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 58.6%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob55.6%

A 56% / xG 1.0-1.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 9.4%

#4 0–1 10.8%

#5 0–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

America MG1.0

Londrina1.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.9%

Form & verdict PPG

AMERICA MG · PPG 0.14

LONDRINA · PPG 0.88

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: POOR form (0.88) vs Home POOR (0.14)

Win probability 1X2

America MG (H) 20.9%

ODDS 1.93 · IMPLIED 51.8% EV -35.8%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -13.0%

Londrina (A) 55.7%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +120.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

America MG face Londrina in Brazil - Serie B on Monday, July 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives America MG a 21% chance, the draw 23% and Londrina 56%, so Londrina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for America MG and 1.7 for Londrina (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, America MG are averaging 0.14 points per game versus 0.88 for Londrina. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +120.0%.

America MG vs Londrina Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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