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Ceara vs Athletic Club Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Sunday, July 12, 2026

Ceara

PPG 1.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Athletic Club

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.2%0-112.8%0-26.2%0-32.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.9%1-113.5%1-26.5%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.4%2-17.2%2-23.5%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.6%3-12.5%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.8% — — —

Draw 30.8% — — —

Away win 29.5% — — —

Over 2.5 44.0% — — —

Over 3.5 23.2% — — —

BTTS 48.4% — — —

Home O1.5 35.9% — — —

Away O1.5 30.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 58.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.4%

H 40% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 13.2%

#3 1–0 13.9%

#4 0–1 12.8%

#5 2–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ceara1.1

Athletic Club1.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 23.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CEARA · PPG 1.38

ATHLETIC CLUB · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.38), Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Ceara (H) 39.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Athletic Club (A) 29.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ceara face Athletic Club in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ceara a 40% chance, the draw 31% and Athletic Club 30%, so Ceara are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Ceara and 1.0 for Athletic Club (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ceara are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.29 for Athletic Club.

Ceara vs Athletic Club Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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