Today / Brazil - Serie B / America MG vs Londrina

America MG vs Londrina Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Sunday, July 12, 2026

America MG

PPG 0.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Londrina

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Away momentum: POOR form (0.88) vs Home POOR (0.14)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-110.8%0-29.4%0-35.4%0-4+3.4%1 1-06.5%1-111.3%1-29.7%1-35.6%1-4+3.6%2 2-03.4%2-15.9%2-25.1%2-32.9%2-4+1.9%3 3-01.2%3-12.0%3-21.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 20.9% — — —

Draw 23.4% — — —

Away win 55.7% — — —

Over 2.5 54.0% — — —

Over 3.5 32.9% — — —

BTTS 55.6% — — —

Home O1.5 35.9% — — —

Away O1.5 50.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 58.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob55.6%

A 56% / xG 1.0-1.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 9.4%

#4 0–1 10.8%

#5 0–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

America MG1.0

Londrina1.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.9%

Form & verdict PPG

AMERICA MG · PPG 0.14

LONDRINA · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: POOR form (0.88) vs Home POOR (0.14)

Win probability 1X2

America MG (H) 20.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Londrina (A) 55.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

America MG face Londrina in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives America MG a 21% chance, the draw 23% and Londrina 56%, so Londrina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for America MG and 1.7 for Londrina (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, America MG are averaging 0.14 points per game versus 0.88 for Londrina.

America MG vs Londrina Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie B Predictions