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Juventude vs Vila Nova Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 17 ·Friday, July 10, 2026, 22:00

Juventude

PPG 2.13 · HOME

UPCOMING

Vila Nova

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.2%0-18.7%0-22.9%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.0%1-111.9%1-23.9%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.3%2-18.1%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.6%3-13.7%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-11.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.2% 54.9% 1.82 -10.5%

Draw 27.1% 31.3% 3.20 -8.0%

Away win 23.7% 20.8% 4.80 +8.3%

Over 2.5 47.4% 42.6% 2.35 +11.4%

Over 3.5 28.8% 22.2% 4.50 +17.8%

BTTS 48.4% 48.8% 2.05 -0.8%

Home O1.5 41.2% 46.5% 2.15 -11.4%

Away O1.5 21.2% 22.2% 4.50 -2.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 84 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 65.3%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.4%

H 49% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.0%

#2 0–0 13.2%

#3 1–1 11.9%

#4 2–0 12.3%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Juventude1.4

Vila Nova0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

JUVENTUDE · PPG 2.13

VILA NOVA · PPG 1.38

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.13) > Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Juventude (H) 49.2%

ODDS 1.82 · IMPLIED 54.9% EV -10.5%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.0%

Vila Nova (A) 23.7%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Juventude face Vila Nova in Brazil - Serie B on Friday, July 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juventude a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Vila Nova 24%, so Juventude are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Juventude and 0.7 for Vila Nova (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juventude are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 1.38 for Vila Nova. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +17.8%.

Juventude vs Vila Nova Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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