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Juventude vs Vila Nova Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 17 ·Friday, July 10, 2026, 22:00

Juventude

PPG 2.13 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWWD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Vila Nova

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWDW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.2%0-18.7%0-22.9%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.0%1-111.9%1-23.9%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.3%2-18.1%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.6%3-13.7%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-11.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.2% 54.9% 1.82 -10.5%

Draw 27.1% 31.3% 3.20 -8.0%

Away win 23.7% 20.8% 4.80 +8.3%

Over 2.5 47.4% 42.6% 2.35 +11.4%

Over 3.5 28.8% 22.2% 4.50 +17.8%

BTTS 48.4% 48.8% 2.05 -0.8%

Home O1.5 41.2% 46.5% 2.15 -11.4%

Away O1.5 21.2% 22.2% 4.50 -2.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.4%

H 49% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 18.0%

#2 0–0 13.2%

#3 1–1 11.9%

#4 2–0 12.3%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Juventude1.4

Vila Nova0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

JUVENTUDE · PPG 2.13

VILA NOVA · PPG 1.38

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.13) > Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Juventude (H) 49.2%

ODDS 1.82 · IMPLIED 54.9% EV -10.5%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.0%

Vila Nova (A) 23.7%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Juventude face Vila Nova in Brazil - Serie B on Friday, July 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juventude a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Vila Nova 24%, so Juventude are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Juventude and 0.7 for Vila Nova (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juventude are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 1.38 for Vila Nova. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +17.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Juventude vs Vila Nova Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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