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Sport Recife vs Botafogo SP Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 17 ·Friday, July 10, 2026, 23:00

Sport Recife

PPG 1.63 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWL

3 – 3

FULL TIME

Botafogo SP

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.8%0-110.8%0-23.7%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.3%1-112.6%1-24.3%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.6%2-17.3%2-22.5%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.1%3-12.8%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.0%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.3% 60.6% 1.65 -25.3%

Draw 29.3% 28.6% 3.50 +1.5%

Away win 25.4% 17.9% 5.60 +25.3%

Over 2.5 38.3% 45.5% 2.20 -15.7%

Over 3.5 19.1% 23.8% 4.20 -11.9%

BTTS 46.8% 48.8% 2.05 -4.1%

Home O1.5 35.9% 51.8% 1.93 -30.7%

Away O1.5 21.2% 21.1% 4.75 +0.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.8%

H 45% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.8%

#2 1–0 18.3%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 2–0 10.6%

#5 0–1 10.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sport Recife1.2

Botafogo SP0.7

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORT RECIFE · PPG 1.63

BOTAFOGO SP · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.63) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Sport Recife (H) 45.3%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -25.3%

Draw 29.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +1.5%

Botafogo SP (A) 25.4%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +25.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sport Recife face Botafogo SP in Brazil - Serie B on Friday, July 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sport Recife a 45% chance, the draw 29% and Botafogo SP 25%, so Sport Recife are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Sport Recife and 0.7 for Botafogo SP (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sport Recife are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.00 for Botafogo SP. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +25.3%. This match finished 3-3.

Sport Recife vs Botafogo SP Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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