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Avai vs Nautico Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 19:00

Avai

PPG 1.13 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Nautico

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-19.5%0-27.1%0-33.5%0-4+1.8%1 1-08.1%1-112.0%1-28.9%1-34.4%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.1%2-17.6%2-25.6%2-32.8%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.2%3-13.2%3-22.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.6% 35.5% 2.82 +3.2%

Draw 26.4% 33.6% 2.98 -12.8%

Away win 37.0% 37.9% 2.64 -2.3%

Over 2.5 54.0% 44.4% 2.25 +21.5%

Over 3.5 32.9% 23.8% 4.20 +38.2%

BTTS 55.6% 54.1% 1.85 +2.9%

Home O1.5 41.2% 35.7% 2.80 +15.4%

Away O1.5 50.2% 37.0% 2.70 +35.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.6%

A 37% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 0–0 6.4%

#4 0–1 9.5%

#5 2–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Avai1.3

Nautico1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.9%

Form & verdict PPG

AVAI · PPG 1.13

NAUTICO · PPG 1.38

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.13), Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Avai (H) 36.6%

ODDS 2.82 · IMPLIED 35.5% EV +3.2%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV -12.8%

Nautico (A) 37.0%

ODDS 2.64 · IMPLIED 37.9% EV -2.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Avai face Nautico in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Avai a 37% chance, the draw 26% and Nautico 37%, so Nautico are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Avai and 1.5 for Nautico (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Avai are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.38 for Nautico. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +38.2%. This match finished 2-0.

Avai vs Nautico Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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