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CRB vs Goias Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 22:00

CRB

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLW

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Goias

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.3% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-15.6%0-23.7%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-07.7%1-110.2%1-26.9%1-33.1%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.1%2-19.4%2-26.3%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.3%3-15.8%3-23.9%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-14.1%4+-22.7%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.6% 52.6% 1.90 -11.5%

Draw 24.6% 29.0% 3.45 -9.1%

Away win 28.8% 25.3% 3.95 +8.3%

Over 2.5 61.3% 54.1% 1.85 +13.4%

Over 3.5 38.8% 30.8% 3.25 +26.1%

BTTS 62.3% 58.8% 1.70 +5.9%

Home O1.5 55.1% 51.8% 1.93 +6.3%

Away O1.5 38.4% 32.3% 3.10 +19.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.3%

H 47% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.1%

#4 1–2 6.9%

#5 2–2✓ 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CRB1.8

Goias1.3

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 38.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CRB · PPG 1.00

GOIAS · PPG 1.13

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

CRB (H) 46.6%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -11.5%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -9.1%

Goias (A) 28.8%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

CRB face Goias in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CRB a 47% chance, the draw 25% and Goias 29%, so CRB are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for CRB and 1.3 for Goias (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CRB are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.13 for Goias. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +26.1%. This match finished 2-2.

CRB vs Goias Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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