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GAIS vs Elfsborg Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 12 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 14:30

GAIS

PPG 1.83 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLLW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Elfsborg

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.6%0-110.0%0-24.0%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.1%1-112.8%1-25.1%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.3%2-18.2%2-23.2%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.4%3-13.5%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.1% 52.6% 1.90 -6.7%

Draw 27.2% 29.0% 3.45 -3.7%

Away win 23.7% 25.6% 3.90 -4.5%

Over 2.5 47.2% 51.3% 1.95 -8.0%

Over 3.5 27.3% 29.0% 3.45 -3.5%

BTTS 48.4% 56.5% 1.77 -14.3%

Home O1.5 41.2% 51.3% 1.95 -19.7%

Away O1.5 21.2% 31.3% 3.20 -19.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.4%

H 49% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 12.6%

#3 1–0✓ 16.1%

#4 2–0 10.3%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

GAIS1.3

Elfsborg0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.2% · O3.5 PROB 27.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GAIS · PPG 1.83

ELFSBORG · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.83) > Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

GAIS (H) 49.1%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -6.7%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -3.7%

Elfsborg (A) 23.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -4.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

GAIS face Elfsborg in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives GAIS a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Elfsborg 24%, so GAIS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for GAIS and 0.8 for Elfsborg (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, GAIS are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.20 for Elfsborg. This match finished 1-0.

GAIS vs Elfsborg Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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