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Mjallby vs AIK Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 13:00

Mjallby

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

AIK

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-17.7%0-23.8%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.1%1-112.0%1-26.0%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.4%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.0%3-14.9%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.7%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.6% 52.6% 1.90 -5.8%

Draw 25.3% 27.4% 3.65 -4.6%

Away win 25.1% 27.0% 3.70 -4.3%

Over 2.5 54.0% 54.6% 1.83 -1.2%

Over 3.5 32.9% 33.3% 3.00 -1.3%

BTTS 55.6% 59.9% 1.67 -7.1%

Home O1.5 46.5% 54.1% 1.85 -14.0%

Away O1.5 31.2% 34.7% 2.88 -10.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 36%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.6%

H 50% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 12.1%

#3 0–0 7.7%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mjallby1.6

AIK1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MJALLBY · PPG 1.50

AIK · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Mjallby (H) 49.6%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -5.8%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -4.6%

AIK (A) 25.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -4.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mjallby face AIK in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mjallby a 50% chance, the draw 25% and AIK 25%, so Mjallby are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Mjallby and 1.0 for AIK (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mjallby are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.50 for AIK.

Mjallby vs AIK Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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