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Hacken vs Djurgarden Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Regular Season - 11 ·Monday, July 6, 2026, 17:00

Hacken

PPG 2.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Djurgarden

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 69.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-13.4%0-23.1%0-31.9%0-4+1.3%1 1-04.0%1-17.3%1-26.6%1-34.0%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.4%2-17.9%2-27.2%2-34.4%2-4+3.0%3 3-03.2%3-15.7%3-25.2%3-33.2%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-15.2%4+-24.7%4+-32.9%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.8% 40.8% 2.45 +17.1%

Draw 21.6% 27.0% 3.70 -12.0%

Away win 30.5% 39.2% 2.55 -22.2%

Over 2.5 67.1% 63.7% 1.57 +5.3%

Over 3.5 47.8% 41.7% 2.40 +14.7%

BTTS 69.1% 69.0% 1.45 +0.2%

Home O1.5 61.2% 51.3% 1.95 +19.3%

Away O1.5 49.8% 51.3% 1.95 -2.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 3.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob69.1%

H 48% / xG 2.2-1.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.3%

#2 2–1 7.9%

#3 2–2 7.2%

#4 1–2 6.6%

#5 3–1 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hacken2.2

Djurgarden1.8

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 47.8%

Form & verdict PPG

HACKEN · PPG 2.20

DJURGARDEN · PPG 2.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.20), Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Hacken (H) 47.8%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +17.1%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -12.0%

Djurgarden (A) 30.5%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -22.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hacken face Djurgarden in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Monday, July 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hacken a 48% chance, the draw 22% and Djurgarden 31%, so Hacken are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Hacken and 1.8 for Djurgarden (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hacken are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 2.00 for Djurgarden. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +25.6%.

Hacken vs Djurgarden Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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