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Orgryte vs Hacken Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 12 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 15:30

Orgryte

PPG 0.60 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDL

4 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Hacken

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWWL

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-15.8%0-27.3%0-36.1%0-4+7.0%1 1-02.9%1-17.3%1-29.2%1-37.7%1-4+8.8%2 2-01.8%2-14.6%2-25.7%2-34.8%2-4+5.5%3 3-00.8%3-11.9%3-22.4%3-32.0%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.8%4+-21.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.4% 20.0% 5.00 +4.2%

Draw 21.2% 22.2% 4.50 -2.8%

Away win 57.5% 64.5% 1.55 -10.9%

Over 2.5 67.2% 67.6% 1.48 -0.5%

Over 3.5 44.1% 45.5% 2.20 -3.0%

BTTS 63.2% 65.4% 1.53 -3.3%

Home O1.5 40.4% 35.1% 2.85 +15.1%

Away O1.5 68.2% 69.0% 1.45 -1.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-3

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob63.2%

A 57% / xG 1.3-2.5 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.2%

#2 1–1 7.3%

#3 1–3 7.7%

#4 0–2 7.3%

#5 0–3 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orgryte1.3

Hacken2.5

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 44.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ORGRYTE · PPG 0.60

HACKEN · PPG 1.80

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.80) vs Home POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Orgryte (H) 21.4%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +4.2%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -2.8%

Hacken (A) 57.5%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -10.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orgryte face Hacken in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orgryte a 21% chance, the draw 21% and Hacken 57%, so Hacken are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Orgryte and 2.5 for Hacken (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orgryte are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 1.80 for Hacken. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +15.1%. This match finished 4-3.

Orgryte vs Hacken Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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