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Athletic Club vs Operario PR Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 16 ·Tuesday, July 7, 2026, 23:00

Athletic Club

PPG 1.63 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Operario PR

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.8%0-113.2%0-25.2%0-31.4%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.7%1-113.2%1-25.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.3%2-16.6%2-22.6%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.8%3-12.2%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.5% 41.0% 2.44 -6.1%

Draw 32.1% 33.3% 3.00 -3.7%

Away win 29.5% 32.3% 3.10 -5.1%

Over 2.5 38.3% 40.8% 2.45 -6.2%

Over 3.5 19.1% 21.1% 4.75 -5.6%

BTTS 47.5% 50.0% 2.00 -5.0%

Home O1.5 35.9% 36.4% 2.75 -1.3%

Away O1.5 21.2% 30.8% 3.25 -18.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.5%

D 32% / xG 1.0-0.8 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.8%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 1–0 16.7%

#4 0–1✓ 13.2%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Athletic Club1.0

Operario PR0.8

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ATHLETIC CLUB · PPG 1.63

OPERARIO PR · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.63), Away AVERAGE (1.43)

Win probability 1X2

Athletic Club (H) 38.5%

ODDS 2.44 · IMPLIED 41.0% EV -6.1%

Draw 32.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -3.7%

Operario PR (A) 29.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -5.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Athletic Club face Operario PR in Brazil - Serie B on Tuesday, July 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Athletic Club a 39% chance, the draw 32% and Operario PR 30%, so Athletic Club are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Athletic Club and 0.8 for Operario PR (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Athletic Club are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.43 for Operario PR. This match finished 0-1.

Athletic Club vs Operario PR Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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