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Ponte Preta vs Criciuma Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 17 ·Wednesday, July 8, 2026, 23:00

Ponte Preta

PPG 0.63 · HOME

UPCOMING

Criciuma

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 55.1% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.4%0-120.2%0-213.3%0-35.8%0-4+2.6%1 1-08.6%1-111.3%1-27.4%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-02.4%2-13.1%2-22.1%2-30.9%2-4+0.4%3 3-00.4%3-10.6%3-20.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 17.8% 17.5% 5.70 +0.9%

Draw 27.1% 27.8% 3.60 -1.5%

Away win 55.1% 61.7% 1.62 -10.7%

Over 2.5 38.3% 45.5% 2.20 -15.7%

Over 3.5 19.1% 23.8% 4.20 -11.9%

BTTS 46.3% 47.6% 2.10 -2.8%

Home O1.5 33.3% 21.1% 4.75 +58.2%

Away O1.5 38.4% 52.6% 1.90 -27.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 83 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 65.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob46.3%

A 55% / xG 0.6-1.3 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 20.2%

#2 0–0 15.4%

#3 0–2 13.3%

#4 1–1 11.3%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ponte Preta0.6

Criciuma1.3

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PONTE PRETA · PPG 0.63

CRICIUMA · PPG 1.50

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.63)

Win probability 1X2

Ponte Preta (H) 17.8%

ODDS 5.70 · IMPLIED 17.5% EV +0.9%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -1.5%

Criciuma (A) 55.1%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -10.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ponte Preta face Criciuma in Brazil - Serie B on Wednesday, July 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ponte Preta a 18% chance, the draw 27% and Criciuma 55%, so Criciuma are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Ponte Preta and 1.3 for Criciuma (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ponte Preta are averaging 0.63 points per game versus 1.50 for Criciuma. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +58.2%.

Ponte Preta vs Criciuma Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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