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Caxias vs Floresta Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 14 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 14:00

Caxias

PPG 2.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Floresta

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.6%0-111.3%0-23.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.3%1-112.4%1-24.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.6%2-16.8%2-22.2%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.9%3-12.5%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-10.9%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.7% 57.8% 1.73 -20.9%

Draw 30.7% 31.3% 3.20 -1.8%

Away win 23.6% 20.8% 4.80 +8.0%

Over 2.5 37.5% 45.5% 2.20 -17.5%

Over 3.5 17.8% 23.8% 4.20 -15.1%

BTTS 46.4% 50.0% 2.00 -7.2%

Home O1.5 35.9% 50.0% 2.00 -28.2%

Away O1.5 20.3% 23.1% 4.33 -7.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 116 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -13.0%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob46.4%

H 46% / xG 1.1-0.6 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 17.6%

#2 1–0 19.3%

#3 1–1 12.4%

#4 2–0 10.6%

#5 0–1 11.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Caxias1.1

Floresta0.6

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.5% · O3.5 PROB 17.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CAXIAS · PPG 2.33

FLORESTA · PPG 1.33

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs P(Home)=45.7%

Win probability 1X2

Caxias (H) 45.7%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -20.9%

Draw 30.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -1.8%

Floresta (A) 23.6%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +8.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Caxias face Floresta in Brazil - Serie C on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Caxias a 46% chance, the draw 31% and Floresta 24%, so Caxias are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Caxias and 0.6 for Floresta (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Caxias are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.33 for Floresta. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +8.0%. This match finished 0-0.

Caxias vs Floresta Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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