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Brusque vs Figueirense Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 13 ·Monday, July 6, 2026, 22:00

Brusque

PPG 2.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Figueirense

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.5%0-18.2%0-22.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.8%1-111.7%1-23.8%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.6%2-18.3%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.0%3-13.9%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-11.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.0% 44.4% 2.25 +10.3%

Draw 27.3% 33.3% 3.00 -10.9%

Away win 23.8% 31.3% 3.20 -14.3%

Over 2.5 44.3% 46.5% 2.15 -4.8%

Over 3.5 23.4% 25.6% 3.90 -5.2%

BTTS 48.5% 54.6% 1.83 -11.2%

Home O1.5 43.2% 42.6% 2.35 +1.5%

Away O1.5 22.5% 33.3% 3.00 -19.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -57.7%

Bet Hit 24%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 49% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.8%

#2 0–0 12.5%

#3 1–1 11.7%

#4 2–0 12.6%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brusque1.4

Figueirense0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.3% · O3.5 PROB 23.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BRUSQUE · PPG 2.50

FIGUEIRENSE · PPG 1.50

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=49.0%

Win probability 1X2

Brusque (H) 49.0%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +10.3%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -10.9%

Figueirense (A) 23.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -14.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brusque face Figueirense in Brazil - Serie C on Monday, July 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brusque a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Figueirense 24%, so Brusque are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Brusque and 0.7 for Figueirense (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brusque are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.50 for Figueirense. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +10.3%.

Brusque vs Figueirense Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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