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UD Ibiza vs Sevilla FC B Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 33 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 10:00

UD Ibiza

PPG 1.63 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Sevilla FC B

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 70.4% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.8%0-14.4%0-20.6%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-024.8%1-16.8%1-20.9%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-019.5%2-15.4%2-20.7%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-010.2%3-12.8%3-20.4%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-11.6%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.4% 82.0% 1.22 -14.1%

Draw 23.4% 21.7% 4.60 +7.6%

Away win 6.1% 6.3% 16.00 -2.4%

Over 2.5 28.2% 54.1% 1.85 -47.8%

Over 3.5 11.6% 32.3% 3.10 -64.0%

BTTS 19.1% 37.7% 2.65 -49.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob19.1%

H 70% / xG 1.6-0.3 / U2.5 28% / NoBTTS 19%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 24.8%

#2 2–0 19.5%

#3 0–0 15.8%

#4 3–0 10.2%

#5 1–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UD Ibiza1.6

Sevilla FC B0.3

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 28.2% · O3.5 PROB 11.6%

Form & verdict PPG

UD IBIZA · PPG 1.63

SEVILLA FC B · PPG 0.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.63), Away POOR (0.38) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

UD Ibiza (H) 70.4%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -14.1%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +7.6%

Sevilla FC B (A) 6.1%

ODDS 16.00 · IMPLIED 6.3% EV -2.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

UD Ibiza face Sevilla FC B in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UD Ibiza a 70% chance, the draw 23% and Sevilla FC B 6%, so UD Ibiza are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for UD Ibiza and 0.3 for Sevilla FC B (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 28% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 19% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UD Ibiza are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 0.38 for Sevilla FC B. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +7.6%. This match finished 0-1.

UD Ibiza vs Sevilla FC B Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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