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Atlético Madrid II vs Juventud Torremolinos Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 · Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 17:15

Atlético Madrid II

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

D ····

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Juventud Torremolinos

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

D ····

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.3 puts the goal expectation near the line. Model probability 50.5% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-19.2%0-24.3%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.6%1-112.7%1-25.9%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.5%2-18.8%2-24.1%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.4%3-14.1%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-11.9%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.0% 52.6% 1.90 -10.7%

Draw 27.2% 30.3% 3.30 -6.1%

Away win 25.8% 26.7% 3.75 -1.9%

Over 2.5 50.5% 52.6% 1.90 -4.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 31.3% 3.20 -4.9%

BTTS 52.1% 58.8% 1.70 -11.4%

Home O1.5 38.8% 51.8% 1.93 -25.1%

Away O1.5 25.7% 33.3% 3.00 -13.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 41.1%

Bet Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.1%

H 47% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 1–0 13.6%

#3 0–0 9.8%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atlético Madrid II1.4

Juventud Torremolinos0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLÉTICO MADRID II · PPG 1.90

JUVENTUD TORREMOLINOS · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.45, combined xG 2.32 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Atlético Madrid II (H) 47.0%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -10.7%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -6.1%

Juventud Torremolinos (A) 25.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -1.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atlético Madrid II face Juventud Torremolinos in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atlético Madrid II a 47% chance, the draw 27% and Juventud Torremolinos 26%, so Atlético Madrid II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Atlético Madrid II and 0.9 for Juventud Torremolinos (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atlético Madrid II are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.14 for Juventud Torremolinos. This match finished 2-2.

Atlético Madrid II vs Juventud Torremolinos Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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