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Alcorcon vs Europa Fc Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 · Matchday 2 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 16:15

Alcorcon

PPG 1.52 · HOME

LAST 5

D ····

UPCOMING

Europa Fc

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

LAST 5

L ····

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 51% chance

Combined xG of 2.5 puts the goal expectation near the line. Model probability 50.4% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-17.9%0-23.7%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.9%1-112.1%1-25.7%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.9%2-19.3%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.1%3-14.8%3-22.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.6%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.3% 65.4% 1.53 -23.0%

Draw 26.9% 29.4% 3.40 -5.1%

Away win 22.8% 18.2% 5.50 +15.2%

Over 2.5 50.4% 51.3% 1.95 -1.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 29.4% 3.40 -1.5%

BTTS 49.9% 52.4% 1.91 -4.7%

Home O1.5 42.7% 57.8% 1.73 -26.1%

Away O1.5 26.1% 22.2% 4.50 +10.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 64 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 41.1%

Bet Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.9%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.9 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 12.9%

#3 2–0 9.9%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 0–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alcorcon1.5

Europa Fc0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ALCORCON · PPG 1.52

EUROPA FC · PPG 1.42

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

51%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.60 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Alcorcon (H) 50.3%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -23.0%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -5.1%

Europa Fc (A) 22.8%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +15.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alcorcon face Europa Fc in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alcorcon a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Europa Fc 23%, so Alcorcon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Alcorcon and 0.9 for Europa Fc (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alcorcon are averaging 1.52 points per game versus 1.42 for Europa Fc. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +33.1%.

Alcorcon vs Europa Fc Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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