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Antequera vs Ibiza Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 · Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 17:15

Antequera

PPG 1.48 · HOME

LAST 5

W ····

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Ibiza

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

L ····

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-18.1%0-24.2%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.9%1-112.2%1-26.3%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.3%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.5%3-14.7%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.5%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.1% 33.3% 3.00 +41.3%

Draw 25.8% 33.9% 2.95 -14.3%

Away win 27.1% 42.9% 2.33 -22.1%

Over 2.5 50.5% 40.8% 2.45 +23.7%

Over 3.5 30.2% 22.2% 4.50 +35.9%

BTTS 52.9% 50.0% 2.00 +5.8%

Home O1.5 40.1% 30.8% 3.25 +30.3%

Away O1.5 32.6% 38.2% 2.62 -14.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 41.1%

Bet Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 47% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 11.9%

#3 2–1 9.3%

#4 2–0 9.0%

#5 0–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Antequera1.5

Ibiza1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 30.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ANTEQUERA · PPG 1.48

IBIZA · PPG 1.14

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.48 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Antequera (H) 47.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +41.3%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -14.3%

Ibiza (A) 27.1%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV -22.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Antequera face Ibiza in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Antequera a 47% chance, the draw 26% and Ibiza 27%, so Antequera are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Antequera and 1.0 for Ibiza (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Antequera are averaging 1.48 points per game versus 1.14 for Ibiza. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +64.3%. This match finished 3-2.

Antequera vs Ibiza Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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