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Zaragoza vs Antequera Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 · Matchday 2 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 19:00

Zaragoza

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

L ····

UPCOMING

Antequera

PPG 1.48 · AWAY

LAST 5

W ····

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-19.0%0-24.7%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.2%1-112.7%1-26.6%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.6%2-18.9%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.0%3-14.2%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.7% 66.7% 1.50 -35.9%

Draw 27.8% 28.6% 3.50 -1.6%

Away win 29.6% 16.7% 6.00 +46.6%

Over 2.5 48.2% 48.1% 2.08 +0.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.7% 3.75 +4.6%

BTTS 49.9% 51.3% 1.95 -2.7%

Home O1.5 39.8% 50.0% 2.00 -20.4%

Away O1.5 32.4% 28.6% 3.50 +13.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 41.1%

Bet Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 17%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.9%

H 43% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 48% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 1–0 12.2%

#3 0–0 8.7%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zaragoza1.4

Antequera1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ZARAGOZA · PPG 1.50

ANTEQUERA · PPG 1.48

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.36, combined xG 2.44 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Zaragoza (H) 42.7%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -35.9%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -1.6%

Antequera (A) 29.6%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +46.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zaragoza face Antequera in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zaragoza a 43% chance, the draw 28% and Antequera 30%, so Zaragoza are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Zaragoza and 1.0 for Antequera (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zaragoza are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.48 for Antequera. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +53.9%.

Zaragoza vs Antequera Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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