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Algeciras vs FC Cartagena Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 · Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 17:15

Algeciras

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

L ····

1 – 3

FULL TIME

FC Cartagena

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

W ····

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-19.0%0-24.3%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.3%1-112.7%1-26.0%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.4%2-18.9%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.4%3-14.2%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.0%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.8% 46.5% 2.15 +0.6%

Draw 27.1% 36.4% 2.75 -15.3%

Away win 26.1% 30.3% 3.30 -8.3%

Over 2.5 50.5% 40.0% 2.50 +26.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 22.2% 4.50 +17.5%

BTTS 52.7% 48.8% 2.05 +8.0%

Home O1.5 40.0% 40.2% 2.49 -0.4%

Away O1.5 25.7% 26.9% 3.72 -2.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 41.1%

Bet Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.7%

H 47% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 1–0 13.3%

#3 0–0 9.5%

#4 2–0 9.4%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Algeciras1.4

FC Cartagena0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ALGECIRAS · PPG 1.75

FC CARTAGENA · PPG 1.17

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.45, combined xG 2.35 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Algeciras (H) 46.8%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +0.6%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -15.3%

FC Cartagena (A) 26.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Algeciras face FC Cartagena in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Algeciras a 47% chance, the draw 27% and FC Cartagena 26%, so Algeciras are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Algeciras and 0.9 for FC Cartagena (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Algeciras are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.17 for FC Cartagena. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +26.3%. This match finished 1-3.

Algeciras vs FC Cartagena Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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