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Hércules vs Atlético Madrid II Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 · Matchday 2 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 16:15

Hércules

PPG 1.58 · HOME

LAST 5

L ····

UPCOMING

Atlético Madrid II

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

LAST 5

D ····

// Model verdict

BTTS 53% chance

Model probability 50.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-18.8%0-24.5%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.3%1-112.6%1-26.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.8%2-19.0%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.2%3-14.3%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.1%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.0% 44.4% 2.25 -1.0%

Draw 27.3% 33.3% 3.00 -10.9%

Away win 28.7% 34.7% 2.88 -10.4%

Over 2.5 49.2% 46.5% 2.15 +5.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.7% 3.75 +4.6%

BTTS 50.0% 54.6% 1.83 -8.5%

Home O1.5 39.9% 40.0% 2.50 -0.3%

Away O1.5 31.9% 33.3% 3.00 -4.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 64 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 41.1%

Bet Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 18%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob50.0%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 12.3%

#3 0–0 8.6%

#4 2–1 9.0%

#5 2–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hércules1.4

Atlético Madrid II1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HÉRCULES · PPG 1.58

ATLÉTICO MADRID II · PPG 1.45

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

53%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.41, combined xG 2.46 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hércules (H) 44.0%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -1.0%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -10.9%

Atlético Madrid II (A) 28.7%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -10.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hércules face Atlético Madrid II in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hércules a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Atlético Madrid II 29%, so Hércules are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Hércules and 1.0 for Atlético Madrid II (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hércules are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 1.45 for Atlético Madrid II. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.8%.

Hércules vs Atlético Madrid II Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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