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FC Cartagena vs Gimnastic Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 · Matchday 2 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 16:45

FC Cartagena

PPG 1.82 · HOME

LAST 5

W ····

UPCOMING

Gimnastic

PPG 1.01 · AWAY

LAST 5

W ····

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-18.3%0-23.8%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.3%1-112.3%1-25.7%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.9%2-19.2%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.9%3-14.5%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.0% 47.6% 2.10 -1.3%

Draw 28.3% 35.7% 2.80 -12.5%

Away win 24.7% 27.0% 3.70 -5.2%

Over 2.5 44.6% 43.5% 2.30 +2.6%

Over 3.5 27.0% 23.8% 4.20 +8.0%

BTTS 49.5% 52.6% 1.90 -5.9%

Home O1.5 39.9% 43.5% 2.30 -8.2%

Away O1.5 26.1% 29.0% 3.45 -6.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 41.1%

Bet Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.5%

H 47% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 13.3%

#3 0–0 9.0%

#4 2–0 9.9%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Cartagena1.5

Gimnastic0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FC CARTAGENA · PPG 1.82

GIMNASTIC · PPG 1.01

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.56 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FC Cartagena (H) 47.0%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -1.3%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -12.5%

Gimnastic (A) 24.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -5.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Cartagena face Gimnastic in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Cartagena a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Gimnastic 25%, so FC Cartagena are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for FC Cartagena and 0.9 for Gimnastic (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Cartagena are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.01 for Gimnastic. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +10.9%.

FC Cartagena vs Gimnastic Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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