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Real Murcia vs Teruel Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 · Matchday 2 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 16:15

Real Murcia

PPG 1.42 · HOME

LAST 5

W ····

UPCOMING

Teruel

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

D ····

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-19.1%0-24.0%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.4%1-112.6%1-25.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.0%2-18.8%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.6%3-14.1%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-11.9%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 59.9% 1.67 -24.2%

Draw 31.7% 33.3% 3.00 -4.9%

Away win 22.8% 20.0% 5.00 +8.4%

Over 2.5 42.7% 42.0% 2.38 +1.6%

Over 3.5 23.0% 23.1% 4.33 -0.3%

BTTS 48.0% 45.5% 2.20 +5.6%

Home O1.5 39.6% 47.6% 2.10 -16.8%

Away O1.5 25.3% 20.0% 5.00 +15.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 64 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 41.1%

Bet Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.0%

H 45% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 10.4%

#3 1–0 14.4%

#4 2–0 10.0%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Murcia1.4

Teruel0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL MURCIA · PPG 1.42

TERUEL · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

48%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Real Murcia (H) 45.4%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -24.2%

Draw 31.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -4.9%

Teruel (A) 22.8%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +8.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Murcia face Teruel in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Murcia a 45% chance, the draw 32% and Teruel 23%, so Real Murcia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Real Murcia and 0.9 for Teruel (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Murcia are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 1.17 for Teruel. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +41.5%.

Real Murcia vs Teruel Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Predictions