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Real Madrid II vs Juventud Torremolinos Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 · Matchday 2 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 11:00

Real Madrid II

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

D ····

UPCOMING

Juventud Torremolinos

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

D ····

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-18.4%0-24.0%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.9%1-112.4%1-26.0%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.2%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.7%3-14.5%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% 63.7% 1.57 -28.4%

Draw 29.5% 28.6% 3.50 +1.9%

Away win 24.9% 20.0% 5.00 +14.7%

Over 2.5 44.5% 54.1% 1.85 -17.7%

Over 3.5 27.7% 33.3% 3.00 -10.1%

BTTS 48.9% 54.1% 1.85 -9.5%

Home O1.5 39.9% 59.9% 1.67 -33.4%

Away O1.5 26.4% 25.0% 4.00 +3.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 41.1%

Bet Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 20%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.9%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 44% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 12.9%

#3 0–0 8.7%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Madrid II1.5

Juventud Torremolinos1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL MADRID II · PPG 1.50

JUVENTUD TORREMOLINOS · PPG 1.12

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Real Madrid II (H) 45.6%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -28.4%

Draw 29.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +1.9%

Juventud Torremolinos (A) 24.9%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +14.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Madrid II face Juventud Torremolinos in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Madrid II a 46% chance, the draw 30% and Juventud Torremolinos 25%, so Real Madrid II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Real Madrid II and 1.0 for Juventud Torremolinos (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Madrid II are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.12 for Juventud Torremolinos. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +30.0%.

Real Madrid II vs Juventud Torremolinos Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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