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Villarreal II vs Algeciras Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 · Matchday 2 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 17:00

Villarreal II

PPG 1.72 · HOME

LAST 5

W ····

UPCOMING

Algeciras

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

L ····

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.9% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-16.7%0-23.3%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.8%1-111.4%1-25.5%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.0%2-19.7%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.7%3-15.5%3-22.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-13.4%4+-21.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.9% 51.3% 1.95 +1.2%

Draw 25.6% 32.3% 3.10 -12.4%

Away win 22.4% 25.6% 3.90 -7.6%

Over 2.5 50.6% 47.6% 2.10 +6.3%

Over 3.5 29.3% 26.7% 3.75 +5.9%

BTTS 51.0% 54.6% 1.83 -6.7%

Home O1.5 49.9% 47.6% 2.10 +4.8%

Away O1.5 27.2% 29.4% 3.40 -4.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 41.1%

Bet Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.0%

H 52% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–0 11.8%

#3 2–0 10.0%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Villarreal II1.7

Algeciras1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.3%

Form & verdict PPG

VILLARREAL II · PPG 1.72

ALGECIRAS · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.73 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Villarreal II (H) 51.9%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +1.2%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -12.4%

Algeciras (A) 22.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -7.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Villarreal II face Algeciras in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Villarreal II a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Algeciras 22%, so Villarreal II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Villarreal II and 1.0 for Algeciras (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Villarreal II are averaging 1.72 points per game versus 1.17 for Algeciras. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +21.3%.

Villarreal II vs Algeciras Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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