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Shanghai Jiadin vs Foshan Nanshi Prediction— China - League One

Sunday, July 12, 2026

Shanghai Jiadin

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Foshan Nanshi

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-15.8%0-23.3%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.4%1-110.7%1-26.0%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.8%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.3%3-16.0%3-23.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-14.2%4+-22.4%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.0% — — —

Draw 22.3% — — —

Away win 23.7% — — —

Over 2.5 61.3% — — —

Over 3.5 37.5% — — —

BTTS 55.6% — — —

Home O1.5 54.9% — — —

Away O1.5 35.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -43.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.6%

H 54% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.7%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 0–0 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shanghai Jiadin1.8

Foshan Nanshi1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SHANGHAI JIADIN · PPG 1.67

FOSHAN NANSHI · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Shanghai Jiadin (H) 54.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Foshan Nanshi (A) 23.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Shanghai Jiadin face Foshan Nanshi in China - League One on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shanghai Jiadin a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Foshan Nanshi 24%, so Shanghai Jiadin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Shanghai Jiadin and 1.1 for Foshan Nanshi (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shanghai Jiadin are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.33 for Foshan Nanshi.

Shanghai Jiadin vs Foshan Nanshi Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More China - League One Predictions