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Nantong Zhiyun vs Changchun Yatai Prediction— China - League One

Sunday, July 12, 2026, 11:30

Nantong Zhiyun

PPG 2.57 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDWL

UPCOMING

Changchun Yatai

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-18.9%0-23.9%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.4%1-112.6%1-25.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.1%2-18.9%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.8%3-14.2%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.0%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.5% 51.3% 1.95 -7.4%

Draw 26.9% 32.3% 3.10 -10.0%

Away win 25.6% 27.0% 3.70 -3.2%

Over 2.5 49.9% 48.8% 2.05 +2.3%

Over 3.5 28.8% 28.6% 3.50 +0.5%

BTTS 52.6% 57.1% 1.75 -8.0%

Home O1.5 42.5% 50.0% 2.00 -15.0%

Away O1.5 23.2% 28.6% 3.50 -11.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 82 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 48% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 14.4%

#3 0–0 10.2%

#4 2–0 10.1%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nantong Zhiyun1.4

Changchun Yatai0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

NANTONG ZHIYUN · PPG 2.57

CHANGCHUN YATAI · PPG 1.43

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.57) vs P(Home)=47.5%

Win probability 1X2

Nantong Zhiyun (H) 47.5%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -7.4%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -10.0%

Changchun Yatai (A) 25.6%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -3.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nantong Zhiyun face Changchun Yatai in China - League One on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nantong Zhiyun a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Changchun Yatai 26%, so Nantong Zhiyun are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Nantong Zhiyun and 0.9 for Changchun Yatai (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nantong Zhiyun are averaging 2.57 points per game versus 1.43 for Changchun Yatai. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.3%.

Nantong Zhiyun vs Changchun Yatai Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More China - League One Predictions