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Guangdong GZP vs S. Gongfu Prediction— China - League One

Saturday, July 11, 2026

Guangdong GZP

PPG 2.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

S. Gongfu

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.29) vs P(Home)=61.7%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-14.6%0-21.2%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-016.5%1-18.9%1-22.4%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.8%2-18.5%2-22.3%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.1%3-15.4%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-07.4%4+-14.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.7% — — —

Draw 20.9% — — —

Away win 17.5% — — —

Over 2.5 50.3% — — —

Over 3.5 29.3% — — —

BTTS 48.4% — — —

Home O1.5 55.1% — — —

Away O1.5 19.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -55.2%

Bet Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.4%

H 62% / xG 1.9-0.5 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.8%

#2 1–0 16.5%

#3 1–1 8.9%

#4 3–0 10.1%

#5 0–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guangdong GZP1.9

S. Gongfu0.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 29.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GUANGDONG GZP · PPG 2.29

S. GONGFU · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.29) vs P(Home)=61.7%

Win probability 1X2

Guangdong GZP (H) 61.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

S. Gongfu (A) 17.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Guangdong GZP face S. Gongfu in China - League One on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guangdong GZP a 62% chance, the draw 21% and S. Gongfu 18%, so Guangdong GZP are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Guangdong GZP and 0.5 for S. Gongfu (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guangdong GZP are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 0.33 for S. Gongfu.

Guangdong GZP vs S. Gongfu Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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