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Dalian Kuncheng vs Nanjing City Prediction— China - League One

Matchday 14 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 11:00

Dalian Kuncheng

PPG 1.17 · HOME

LAST 5

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2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Nanjing City

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

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// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.4% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-19.5%0-26.2%0-32.7%0-4+1.2%1 1-09.7%1-112.5%1-28.1%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.3%2-18.2%2-25.3%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.8%3-13.6%3-22.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.6%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.9% 46.5% 2.15 -14.2%

Draw 25.2% 32.3% 3.10 -13.1%

Away win 34.9% 31.3% 3.20 +11.7%

Over 2.5 54.5% 51.3% 1.95 +6.3%

Over 3.5 34.8% 29.4% 3.40 +18.3%

BTTS 58.4% 58.8% 1.70 -0.7%

Home O1.5 41.2% 46.5% 2.15 -11.4%

Away O1.5 38.4% 35.7% 2.80 +7.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 82 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.4%

H 40% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.4%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 1–2 8.1%

#5 1–0 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dalian Kuncheng1.3

Nanjing City1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.5% · O3.5 PROB 34.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DALIAN KUNCHENG · PPG 1.17

NANJING CITY · PPG 0.83

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.17) > Away POOR (0.83)

Win probability 1X2

Dalian Kuncheng (H) 39.9%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -14.2%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -13.1%

Nanjing City (A) 34.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +11.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dalian Kuncheng face Nanjing City in China - League One on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dalian Kuncheng a 40% chance, the draw 25% and Nanjing City 35%, so Dalian Kuncheng are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Dalian Kuncheng and 1.3 for Nanjing City (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dalian Kuncheng are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.83 for Nanjing City. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Dalian Kuncheng vs Nanjing City Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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