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Shaanxi Union vs Meizhou Hakka Prediction— China - League One

Matchday 14 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 11:00

Shaanxi Union

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWLW

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Meizhou Hakka

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.3%0-17.1%0-22.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.3%1-111.3%1-23.9%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.9%2-18.9%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.8%3-14.7%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-12.6%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.7% 67.6% 1.48 -19.0%

Draw 25.4% 25.6% 3.90 -0.6%

Away win 19.9% 16.7% 6.00 +11.6%

Over 2.5 49.9% 59.9% 1.67 -16.7%

Over 3.5 29.2% 38.2% 2.62 -14.1%

BTTS 48.4% 58.8% 1.70 -17.7%

Home O1.5 47.7% 63.7% 1.57 -25.1%

Away O1.5 21.2% 26.7% 3.75 -12.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 82 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.4%

H 55% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.3%

#2 1–1 11.3%

#3 2–0 12.9%

#4 0–0 10.3%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shaanxi Union1.6

Meizhou Hakka0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SHAANXI UNION · PPG 1.60

MEIZHOU HAKKA · PPG 1.67

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.60), Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Shaanxi Union (H) 54.7%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -19.0%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -0.6%

Meizhou Hakka (A) 19.9%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +11.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shaanxi Union face Meizhou Hakka in China - League One on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shaanxi Union a 55% chance, the draw 25% and Meizhou Hakka 20%, so Shaanxi Union are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Shaanxi Union and 0.7 for Meizhou Hakka (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shaanxi Union are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.67 for Meizhou Hakka. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +11.6%. This match finished 4-0.

Shaanxi Union vs Meizhou Hakka Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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