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Wuxi Wugou vs Guangxi H. Prediction— China - League One

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 11:00

Wuxi Wugou

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Guangxi H.

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 56.5% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-18.3%0-25.3%0-32.2%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.6%1-112.1%1-27.7%1-33.2%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.0%2-18.8%2-25.6%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.4%3-14.3%3-22.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.2%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.7% 30.8% 3.25 +32.3%

Draw 24.8% 32.3% 3.10 -13.9%

Away win 34.5% 47.6% 2.10 -27.6%

Over 2.5 54.7% 46.5% 2.15 +17.6%

Over 3.5 34.7% 26.7% 3.75 +30.1%

BTTS 56.5% 54.1% 1.85 +4.5%

Home O1.5 45.1% 29.4% 3.40 +53.3%

Away O1.5 38.4% 44.4% 2.25 -13.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -55.2%

Bet Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob56.5%

H 41% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 0–0 6.5%

#4 1–0 9.6%

#5 1–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wuxi Wugou1.5

Guangxi H.1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.7% · O3.5 PROB 34.7%

Form & verdict PPG

WUXI WUGOU · PPG 1.50

GUANGXI H. · PPG 1.14

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Wuxi Wugou (H) 40.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +32.3%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -13.9%

Guangxi H. (A) 34.5%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -27.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wuxi Wugou face Guangxi H. in China - League One on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wuxi Wugou a 41% chance, the draw 25% and Guangxi H. 35%, so Wuxi Wugou are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Wuxi Wugou and 1.3 for Guangxi H. (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wuxi Wugou are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.14 for Guangxi H.. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +53.3%.

Wuxi Wugou vs Guangxi H. Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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