Today / China - League One / Yanbian Longdin vs Suzhou Dongwu

Yanbian Longdin vs Suzhou Dongwu Prediction— China - League One

Matchday 14 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 10:00

Yanbian Longdin

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWWL

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Suzhou Dongwu

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDDW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.9% vs bookmaker-implied 61.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.8%0-17.7%0-22.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.6%1-111.2%1-23.4%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.6%2-18.1%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.6%3-14.0%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-12.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.9% 61.0% 1.64 -11.6%

Draw 26.4% 29.4% 3.40 -6.1%

Away win 19.6% 19.6% 5.10 -0.0%

Over 2.5 47.2% 46.5% 2.15 +1.5%

Over 3.5 27.2% 25.3% 3.95 +4.5%

BTTS 48.4% 48.8% 2.05 -0.8%

Home O1.5 45.0% 52.6% 1.90 -14.5%

Away O1.5 19.1% 23.1% 4.33 -10.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 82 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.4%

H 54% / xG 1.5-0.6 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.6%

#2 0–0 12.8%

#3 2–0 13.6%

#4 1–1 11.2%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Yanbian Longdin1.5

Suzhou Dongwu0.6

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.2% · O3.5 PROB 27.2%

Form & verdict PPG

YANBIAN LONGDIN · PPG 1.33

SUZHOU DONGWU · PPG 0.83

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away POOR (0.83)

Win probability 1X2

Yanbian Longdin (H) 53.9%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -11.6%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -6.1%

Suzhou Dongwu (A) 19.6%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV -0.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Yanbian Longdin face Suzhou Dongwu in China - League One on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Yanbian Longdin a 54% chance, the draw 26% and Suzhou Dongwu 20%, so Yanbian Longdin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Yanbian Longdin and 0.6 for Suzhou Dongwu (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Yanbian Longdin are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.83 for Suzhou Dongwu. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +4.5%. This match finished 3-1.

Yanbian Longdin vs Suzhou Dongwu Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More China - League One Predictions