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Shenzhen J. vs Dingnan Prediction— China - League One

Sunday, July 12, 2026

Shenzhen J.

PPG 1.83 · HOME

UPCOMING

Dingnan

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-15.9%0-23.1%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.2%1-110.8%1-25.7%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.3%2-19.9%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.7%3-16.0%3-23.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-14.2%4+-22.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% — — —

Draw 22.7% — — —

Away win 23.6% — — —

Over 2.5 61.3% — — —

Over 3.5 38.2% — — —

BTTS 60.3% — — —

Home O1.5 54.0% — — —

Away O1.5 35.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -43.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.3%

H 54% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.3%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shenzhen J.1.8

Dingnan1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 38.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SHENZHEN J. · PPG 1.83

DINGNAN · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.83) > Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Shenzhen J. (H) 53.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Dingnan (A) 23.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Shenzhen J. face Dingnan in China - League One on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shenzhen J. a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Dingnan 24%, so Shenzhen J. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Shenzhen J. and 1.1 for Dingnan (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shenzhen J. are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.50 for Dingnan.

Shenzhen J. vs Dingnan Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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