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Marbella vs Gimnastic T. Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 33 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 10:00

Marbella

PPG 1.29 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Gimnastic T.

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 42.9% — a clear edge.

+22.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-17.8%0-23.5%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.5%1-112.0%1-25.4%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.4%2-19.3%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.4%3-14.8%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-12.6%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% 42.9% 2.33 +22.8%

Draw 25.6% 33.3% 3.00 -23.2%

Away win 21.7% 33.9% 2.95 -36.0%

Over 2.5 44.2% 47.6% 2.10 -7.2%

Over 3.5 23.1% 26.7% 3.75 -13.4%

BTTS 46.6% 55.6% 1.80 -16.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob46.6%

H 53% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 44% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.5%

#2 1–1 12.0%

#3 2–0✓ 10.4%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 0–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Marbella1.6

Gimnastic T.0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.2% · O3.5 PROB 23.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MARBELLA · PPG 1.29

GIMNASTIC T. · PPG 0.87

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.29) > Away POOR (0.87)

Win probability 1X2

Marbella (H) 52.7%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV +22.8%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -23.2%

Gimnastic T. (A) 21.7%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -36.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Marbella face Gimnastic T. in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Marbella a 53% chance, the draw 26% and Gimnastic T. 22%, so Marbella are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Marbella and 0.9 for Gimnastic T. (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Marbella are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.87 for Gimnastic T.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +22.8%. This match finished 2-0.

Marbella vs Gimnastic T. Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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