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CA Guemes vs SM San Juan Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Sunday, July 12, 2026

CA Guemes

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

SM San Juan

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away POOR (0.89)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-19.8%0-26.1%0-32.5%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.2%1-112.7%1-27.9%1-33.3%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.6%2-18.2%2-25.1%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.9%3-13.6%3-22.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.5%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.3% — — —

Draw 26.9% — — —

Away win 35.9% — — —

Over 2.5 51.8% — — —

Over 3.5 29.8% — — —

BTTS 55.6% — — —

Home O1.5 41.2% — — —

Away O1.5 38.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 164 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -10.3%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.6%

H 37% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 7.9%

#3 1–0 10.2%

#4 2–1 8.2%

#5 1–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CA Guemes1.3

SM San Juan1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.8% · O3.5 PROB 29.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CA GUEMES · PPG 1.40

SM SAN JUAN · PPG 0.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away POOR (0.89)

Win probability 1X2

CA Guemes (H) 37.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

SM San Juan (A) 35.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

CA Guemes face SM San Juan in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CA Guemes a 37% chance, the draw 27% and SM San Juan 36%, so CA Guemes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for CA Guemes and 1.2 for SM San Juan (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CA Guemes are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.89 for SM San Juan.

CA Guemes vs SM San Juan Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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