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Midland vs Quilmes Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 19:00

Midland

PPG 1.80 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDLW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Quilmes

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.3%0-110.3%0-23.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.3%1-112.2%1-23.8%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.4%2-17.2%2-22.3%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.5%3-12.8%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.1%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.3% 50.0% 2.00 -3.4%

Draw 28.5% 35.1% 2.85 -11.3%

Away win 23.3% 24.4% 4.10 -2.7%

Over 2.5 38.3% 37.0% 2.70 +3.4%

Over 3.5 19.5% 18.2% 5.50 +4.3%

BTTS 48.4% 44.4% 2.25 +8.9%

Home O1.5 36.2% 38.2% 2.62 -5.2%

Away O1.5 19.6% 23.1% 4.33 -9.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 293 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -5.1%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.4%

H 48% / xG 1.2-0.6 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.3%

#2 1–0✓ 19.3%

#3 1–1 12.2%

#4 2–0 11.4%

#5 0–1 10.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Midland1.2

Quilmes0.6

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MIDLAND · PPG 1.80

QUILMES · PPG 0.60

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.80) vs P(Home)=48.3%

Win probability 1X2

Midland (H) 48.3%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -3.4%

Draw 28.5%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -11.3%

Quilmes (A) 23.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -2.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Midland face Quilmes in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Midland a 48% chance, the draw 28% and Quilmes 23%, so Midland are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Midland and 0.6 for Quilmes (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Midland are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.60 for Quilmes. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +8.9%. This match finished 1-0.

Midland vs Quilmes Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Primera Nacional Predictions