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Midland vs Quilmes Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 20 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 19:00

Midland

PPG 1.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Quilmes

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.3%0-110.3%0-23.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.3%1-112.2%1-23.8%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.4%2-17.2%2-22.3%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.5%3-12.8%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.1%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.3% 50.0% 2.00 -3.4%

Draw 28.5% 35.1% 2.85 -11.3%

Away win 23.3% 24.4% 4.10 -2.7%

Over 2.5 38.3% 37.0% 2.70 +3.4%

Over 3.5 19.5% 18.2% 5.50 +4.3%

BTTS 48.4% 44.4% 2.25 +8.9%

Home O1.5 36.2% 38.2% 2.62 -5.2%

Away O1.5 19.6% 23.1% 4.33 -9.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 164 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -10.3%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.4%

H 48% / xG 1.2-0.6 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.3%

#2 1–0 19.3%

#3 1–1 12.2%

#4 2–0 11.4%

#5 0–1 10.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Midland1.2

Quilmes0.6

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MIDLAND · PPG 1.80

QUILMES · PPG 0.60

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.80) vs P(Home)=48.3%

Win probability 1X2

Midland (H) 48.3%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -3.4%

Draw 28.5%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -11.3%

Quilmes (A) 23.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -2.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Midland face Quilmes in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Midland a 48% chance, the draw 28% and Quilmes 23%, so Midland are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Midland and 0.6 for Quilmes (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Midland are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.60 for Quilmes. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +8.9%.

Midland vs Quilmes Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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