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Godoy Cruz vs D. de Belgrano Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 19:30

Godoy Cruz

PPG 2.11 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

D. de Belgrano

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.0%0-19.3%0-22.9%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.2%1-111.9%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.3%2-17.6%2-22.3%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.2%3-13.2%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-11.4%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.3% 54.6% 1.83 -11.6%

Draw 28.5% 33.3% 3.00 -8.7%

Away win 23.3% 22.7% 4.40 +1.5%

Over 2.5 38.3% 37.0% 2.70 +3.4%

Over 3.5 19.8% 18.2% 5.50 +5.3%

BTTS 47.5% 43.5% 2.30 +9.3%

Home O1.5 41.2% 43.5% 2.30 -5.2%

Away O1.5 19.1% 21.1% 4.75 -5.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 293 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -5.1%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.5%

H 48% / xG 1.3-0.6 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 19.2%

#2 0–0 15.0%

#3 1–1 11.9%

#4 2–0 12.3%

#5 2–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Godoy Cruz1.3

D. de Belgrano0.6

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GODOY CRUZ · PPG 2.11

D. DE BELGRANO · PPG 1.22

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.11) vs P(Home)=48.3%

Win probability 1X2

Godoy Cruz (H) 48.3%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -11.6%

Draw 28.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -8.7%

D. de Belgrano (A) 23.3%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +1.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Godoy Cruz face D. de Belgrano in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Godoy Cruz a 48% chance, the draw 28% and D. de Belgrano 23%, so Godoy Cruz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Godoy Cruz and 0.6 for D. de Belgrano (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Godoy Cruz are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 1.22 for D. de Belgrano. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +9.3%. This match finished 1-0.

Godoy Cruz vs D. de Belgrano Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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