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A. Rafaela vs Deportivo Maipu Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 18:00

A. Rafaela

PPG 2.22 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportivo Maipu

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.0%0-110.2%0-23.7%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.3%1-112.6%1-24.6%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.7%2-17.8%2-22.8%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.4%3-13.2%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.3%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.7% 45.5% 2.20 +0.5%

Draw 30.7% 35.7% 2.80 -14.0%

Away win 23.6% 28.6% 3.50 -10.4%

Over 2.5 38.3% 33.9% 2.95 +13.0%

Over 3.5 19.1% 15.4% 6.50 +14.5%

BTTS 46.4% 43.5% 2.30 +6.7%

Home O1.5 38.6% 35.1% 2.85 +10.0%

Away O1.5 21.2% 23.8% 4.20 -6.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 156 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -13.5%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.4%

H 46% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.0%

#2 1–0 17.3%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 2–0 10.7%

#5 0–1 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

A. Rafaela1.2

Deportivo Maipu0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.1%

Form & verdict PPG

A. RAFAELA · PPG 2.22

DEPORTIVO MAIPU · PPG 0.67

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.22) vs P(Home)=45.7%

Win probability 1X2

A. Rafaela (H) 45.7%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +0.5%

Draw 30.7%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -14.0%

Deportivo Maipu (A) 23.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

A. Rafaela face Deportivo Maipu in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives A. Rafaela a 46% chance, the draw 31% and Deportivo Maipu 24%, so A. Rafaela are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for A. Rafaela and 0.7 for Deportivo Maipu (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, A. Rafaela are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 0.67 for Deportivo Maipu. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +14.5%.

A. Rafaela vs Deportivo Maipu Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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