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All Boys vs Almirante Brown Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 18:00

All Boys

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Almirante Brown

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-030.6%0-117.0%0-24.7%0-30.9%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.3%1-110.7%1-23.0%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-06.1%2-13.4%2-20.9%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-01.3%3-10.7%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.7% 45.5% 2.20 -25.9%

Draw 36.8% 40.0% 2.50 -8.0%

Away win 29.5% 24.4% 4.10 +12.6%

Over 2.5 32.6% 25.0% 4.00 +30.4%

Over 3.5 12.4% 11.1% 9.00 +7.0%

BTTS 45.6% 37.0% 2.70 +23.1%

Home O1.5 33.3% 29.4% 3.40 +13.2%

Away O1.5 19.1% 16.7% 6.00 +8.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 293 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -5.1%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.6%

D 37% / xG 0.6-0.6 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 30.6%

#2 1–0 19.3%

#3 0–1 17.0%

#4 1–1✓ 10.7%

#5 2–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

All Boys0.6

Almirante Brown0.6

COMBINED 1.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 32.6% · O3.5 PROB 12.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ALL BOYS · PPG 1.67

ALMIRANTE BROWN · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

All Boys (H) 33.7%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -25.9%

Draw 36.8%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -8.0%

Almirante Brown (A) 29.5%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +12.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

All Boys face Almirante Brown in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives All Boys a 34% chance, the draw 37% and Almirante Brown 30%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.6 for All Boys and 0.6 for Almirante Brown (1.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, All Boys are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.00 for Almirante Brown. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +30.4%. This match finished 1-1.

All Boys vs Almirante Brown Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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