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Colon Santa Fe vs Central Norte Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 20 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 18:30

Colon Santa Fe

PPG 2.11 · HOME

UPCOMING

Central Norte

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.2% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.6%0-17.6%0-21.7%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-022.2%1-110.2%1-22.3%1-30.4%1-4+0.0%2 2-014.8%2-16.8%2-21.6%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-06.6%3-13.0%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-11.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 61.7% 1.62 -13.8%

Draw 27.5% 30.8% 3.25 -6.4%

Away win 19.3% 16.7% 6.00 +9.5%

Over 2.5 38.3% 37.0% 2.70 +3.4%

Over 3.5 18.3% 16.7% 6.00 +5.9%

BTTS 45.6% 40.0% 2.50 +14.0%

Home O1.5 41.2% 45.5% 2.20 -9.4%

Away O1.5 17.5% 12.5% 8.00 +24.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 164 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -10.3%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob45.6%

H 53% / xG 1.3-0.5 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 22.2%

#2 0–0 16.6%

#3 2–0 14.8%

#4 1–1 10.2%

#5 2–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Colon Santa Fe1.3

Central Norte0.5

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.3% · O3.5 PROB 18.3%

Form & verdict PPG

COLON SANTA FE · PPG 2.11

CENTRAL NORTE · PPG 0.80

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.11) vs P(Home)=53.2%

Win probability 1X2

Colon Santa Fe (H) 53.2%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -13.8%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -6.4%

Central Norte (A) 19.3%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +9.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Colon Santa Fe face Central Norte in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colon Santa Fe a 53% chance, the draw 28% and Central Norte 19%, so Colon Santa Fe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Colon Santa Fe and 0.5 for Central Norte (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colon Santa Fe are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 0.80 for Central Norte. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +24.0%.

Colon Santa Fe vs Central Norte Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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