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Gimnasia Jujuy vs Chacarita J. Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 18:00

Gimnasia Jujuy

PPG 2.78 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Chacarita J.

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.9% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-13.5%0-21.2%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-012.2%1-18.0%1-22.6%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.8%2-19.1%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.4%3-16.9%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-010.0%4+-16.6%4+-22.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.9% 65.4% 1.53 -0.7%

Draw 20.8% 29.0% 3.45 -16.9%

Away win 14.3% 15.2% 6.60 -3.4%

Over 2.5 54.2% 42.6% 2.35 +27.4%

Over 3.5 34.7% 23.1% 4.33 +50.2%

BTTS 48.4% 43.5% 2.30 +11.3%

Home O1.5 62.5% 54.1% 1.85 +15.6%

Away O1.5 21.2% 17.4% 5.75 +13.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 293 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -5.1%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.4%

H 65% / xG 2.3-0.7 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.8%

#2 1–0 12.2%

#3 3–0 10.4%

#4 1–1✓ 8.0%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimnasia Jujuy2.3

Chacarita J.0.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.2% · O3.5 PROB 34.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMNASIA JUJUY · PPG 2.78

CHACARITA J. · PPG 0.56

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.78) vs P(Home)=64.9%

Win probability 1X2

Gimnasia Jujuy (H) 64.9%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -0.7%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -16.9%

Chacarita J. (A) 14.3%

ODDS 6.60 · IMPLIED 15.2% EV -3.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimnasia Jujuy face Chacarita J. in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimnasia Jujuy a 65% chance, the draw 21% and Chacarita J. 14%, so Gimnasia Jujuy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Gimnasia Jujuy and 0.7 for Chacarita J. (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimnasia Jujuy are averaging 2.78 points per game versus 0.56 for Chacarita J.. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +50.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Gimnasia Jujuy vs Chacarita J. Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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