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SM Tucuman vs Almagro Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 20 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 21:00

SM Tucuman

PPG 1.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

Almagro

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.0%0-19.6%0-22.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.2%1-111.4%1-23.0%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.5%2-16.7%2-21.8%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-04.9%3-12.6%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.0%4+-20.3%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.4% 61.7% 1.62 -23.2%

Draw 29.1% 32.3% 3.10 -5.9%

Away win 23.5% 16.0% 6.25 +28.1%

Over 2.5 36.4% 37.7% 2.65 -3.5%

Over 3.5 17.6% 16.7% 6.00 +3.4%

BTTS 45.6% 40.8% 2.45 +11.7%

Home O1.5 36.0% 47.6% 2.10 -24.4%

Away O1.5 19.1% 16.7% 6.00 +8.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 164 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -10.3%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob45.6%

H 47% / xG 1.2-0.5 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.0%

#2 1–0 21.2%

#3 1–1 11.4%

#4 2–0 12.5%

#5 0–1 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SM Tucuman1.2

Almagro0.5

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.4% · O3.5 PROB 17.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SM TUCUMAN · PPG 1.56

ALMAGRO · PPG 0.67

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.56) vs P(Home)=47.4%

Win probability 1X2

SM Tucuman (H) 47.4%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -23.2%

Draw 29.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -5.9%

Almagro (A) 23.5%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +28.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

SM Tucuman face Almagro in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SM Tucuman a 47% chance, the draw 29% and Almagro 24%, so SM Tucuman are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for SM Tucuman and 0.5 for Almagro (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SM Tucuman are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.67 for Almagro. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +28.1%.

SM Tucuman vs Almagro Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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