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Gimnasia y Tiro vs Patronato Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 20 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 20:00

Gimnasia y Tiro

PPG 1.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Patronato

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-020.3%0-111.2%0-23.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.2%1-111.7%1-23.2%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.1%2-16.1%2-21.7%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-03.8%3-12.1%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-10.7%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.4% 44.4% 2.25 +6.7%

Draw 31.9% 36.4% 2.75 -12.3%

Away win 20.6% 29.4% 3.40 -18.0%

Over 2.5 35.8% 33.9% 2.95 +5.6%

Over 3.5 12.8% 15.4% 6.50 -10.1%

BTTS 45.6% 43.5% 2.30 +4.9%

Home O1.5 35.9% 35.1% 2.85 +2.3%

Away O1.5 19.1% 25.0% 4.00 -14.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 164 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -10.3%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.6%

H 47% / xG 1.0-0.6 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 20.3%

#2 1–0 21.2%

#3 1–1 11.7%

#4 2–0 11.1%

#5 0–1 11.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimnasia y Tiro1.0

Patronato0.6

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.8% · O3.5 PROB 12.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMNASIA Y TIRO · PPG 1.60

PATRONATO · PPG 0.89

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.60) > Away POOR (0.89)

Win probability 1X2

Gimnasia y Tiro (H) 47.4%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +6.7%

Draw 31.9%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -12.3%

Patronato (A) 20.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -18.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimnasia y Tiro face Patronato in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimnasia y Tiro a 47% chance, the draw 32% and Patronato 21%, so Gimnasia y Tiro are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Gimnasia y Tiro and 0.6 for Patronato (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimnasia y Tiro are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.89 for Patronato. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +6.7%.

Gimnasia y Tiro vs Patronato Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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