Today / Norway - Eliteserien / Sarpsborg 08 vs Viking

Sarpsborg 08 vs Viking Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 13 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 17:15

Sarpsborg 08

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLLD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Viking

PPG 2.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-110.4%0-29.4%0-35.7%0-4+3.9%1 1-06.0%1-110.8%1-29.9%1-36.0%1-4+4.1%2 2-03.1%2-15.7%2-25.2%2-33.1%2-4+2.1%3 3-01.1%3-12.0%3-21.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.3% 24.4% 4.10 -5.1%

Draw 21.9% 25.0% 4.00 -7.4%

Away win 55.8% 57.8% 1.73 -3.5%

Over 2.5 61.3% 66.7% 1.50 -8.1%

Over 3.5 38.4% 44.4% 2.25 -13.6%

BTTS 59.8% 67.6% 1.48 -11.5%

Home O1.5 35.9% 39.2% 2.55 -8.5%

Away O1.5 50.2% 63.7% 1.57 -21.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 90 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob59.8%

A 56% / xG 1.0-1.8 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 1–2 9.9%

#3 0–2 9.4%

#4 0–1 10.4%

#5 0–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sarpsborg 081.0

Viking1.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 38.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SARPSBORG 08 · PPG 1.60

VIKING · PPG 2.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs Home GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Sarpsborg 08 (H) 22.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -5.1%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.4%

Viking (A) 55.8%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -3.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sarpsborg 08 face Viking in Norway - Eliteserien on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sarpsborg 08 a 22% chance, the draw 22% and Viking 56%, so Viking are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Sarpsborg 08 and 1.8 for Viking (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sarpsborg 08 are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 2.40 for Viking. This match finished 1-0.

Sarpsborg 08 vs Viking Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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